In 2025, water volumes are lower than in 2011. A water expert reveals why many areas still face severe flooding and warns of combined floodwaters and high tides on 21-22 Nov.
Due to heavy rainfall, water levels in dams and reservoirs have risen, causing significant flooding in many areas. Most recently, today (10 Nov 2025) Chao Phraya Dam In Sapphaya District, Chainat Province, water discharge has gradually increased since 16:00 from 2,800 cubic meters per second to 2,900 cubic meters per second (approximately 10 cubic meters per second per hour). Residents are concerned that the current water situation may repeat the major flooding of 2011.
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Seree Suparat Director of the Climate Change and Disaster Center at Rangsit University and Vice President of the National Disaster Warning Council Foundation said that water levels in dams are comparable to those in 2011, especially in the upper dams of the country, but the total volume is about 65% of that year.
He assessed that flooding will not be as severe as in 2011. That year, water discharge reached up to 3,800 cubic meters per second, which is nearly 1,000 cubic meters per second more than current rates.
However, the cause of continued severe flooding and strong impacts arises from two main factors: first, water management errors in water retention, and second, changes in the physical condition of the areas.
“Though water is less than in 2011, some people in Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya Province say water levels are higher than then. We are unsure of the cause. Relevant agencies need to verify whether this is true. If so, it indicates mismanagement.”
Physical conditions also refer to how well areas can protect themselves, because if some areas defend effectively, water will flow to lower or less protected areas instead, so even with less water than in 2011, flooding can still be severe.
He urged residents to closely monitor the situation and check whether their areas have flood defenses like dikes; if not, they should prepare for the impact. Currently, water levels continue to rise because northern floodwaters will coincide with high sea tides on 21-22 Nov. Residents should be extremely cautious, especially in surrounding provinces like Pathum Thani and Nonthaburi. However, it is believed that Bangkok will not flood, though there may be some overflow in areas along water barriers or local depressions. Water levels are expected to start receding after 23-24 Nov.
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Seree observed that the current water management plan lacks additional "monkey cheeks" (flood storage areas) in the upper regions of the country. They are awaiting data on water volume passing through Nakhon Sawan Province, which in 2011 was only 60% yet still caused severe flooding. This shows a lack of proper management upstream. He recommends creating more such areas to accommodate excess water above Nakhon Sawan.
Regarding downstream areas facing high tide problems, strategies must be developed, such as building sea dikes, as Bangkok faces a high risk of future flooding.