“It will gradually recover in 5 years.”
This is the forecast for the future of Thailand's housing market, valued at hundreds of billions of baht, after Thai people have been affected by economic growth falling short of targets, household debt, and persistently high interest rates.
According to SCB EIC (Siam Commercial Bank), slow economic recovery, tightened lending standards by financial institutions, and rising housing prices have significantly impacted the purchasing power of the middle to lower-income groups and increasingly affected middle to upper-income groups.
Surveys show that 47% of people have no plans to buy housing within the next five years due to lack of financial readiness.
Recently, the Housing Business Association (HBA) revealed a survey on housing loan applications in Q3 2025 CE (2568 BE), finding the rejection rate remains high at over 39–40%, reflecting difficulties in loan access, especially for homes priced below 3 million baht, directly impacted by the economic slowdown and stricter lending criteria.
The main problems borrowers face are...
Meanwhile, banks continue strict evaluations, with main reasons for loan rejections including...
The survey indicates that the most affected customers are those with irregular incomes such as freelancers, merchants, and self-employed workers who, despite having repayment capacity, cannot provide income proof in forms acceptable to banks. This causes a high rejection rate across all home price levels, especially homes under 3 million baht. Even high-end homes priced over 7 million baht are beginning to feel the impact from business borrowers failing to secure loans.
Borisud Kasinpila, CEO of Home Buyer Group and real estate expert, stated on his personal Facebook that the real estate business is currently in a challenging phase, adjusting heavily. Campaigns focus on selling stock with prices set just to recoup costs, enough to cover staff salaries, as cash flow now matters more than profit.
Pressure arises from large unsold inventory amid low buying power and high loan rejection rates. Many companies are seeking additional survival strategies, including developing new products for emerging markets, launching small-scale projects without common areas to lower prices for wider accessibility, offering house construction services on customers' land, and taking over small developers’ projects to utilize existing home designs and precast factory capacity.
Some firms convert completed but unsold houses or condos into rental units to wait for customers to improve their financial records until they qualify for loans, or turn to rental business models entirely, as seen with Pruksa Holding shifting to apartment rentals. This shows thorough adaptation from both developers and buyers.
Although real housing demand persists, loan obstacles remain the main factor slowing market recovery. Developers' proposals to revive the market include several measures such as:
The Housing Business Association also urges the government to revive "first-home loan measures" and expedite the implementation of "Unified Lending Criteria" to ensure equal loan access for all groups.
Further research by Thairath Money shows that the government previously announced a "First Home" program around 2015–2016 CE (2558–2559 BE), allowing tax deductions on personal income tax up to 120,000 baht annually, calculated as 20% of the purchase price recorded in the Land Department contract, spread evenly over five years. The program covered single houses, buildings, or condominiums, whether new or second-hand.
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